Oscar Predictions 2009

One of the drawbacks of postgraduate study is not having as much spare time as you would otherwise have; in other years I would have seen all of the big-hitters at the Oscars but this year, I've missed out on several, notably Milk and Revolutionary Road. As such, these predictions will be based on what I've seen and the Academy's past record for giving awards. Guesses for previous years haven't been too successful, but here goes for 2009.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

By far and away the best film I've seen this year was Slumdog Millionaire, followed by WALL·E (which I was disappointed not to see on the shortlist for best picture) but, sadly, I feel that due to the Academy's predilection for sentimentality verging on the saccharine (just as with Forrest Gump in 1994), David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will see Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall collect the Oscar despite the film being a boring, self-indulgent and incoherent mess. Slumdog is a better film in every respect than Benjamin Button but the Academy doesn't tend to reward foreign directors or films with hard-hitting subject matter.
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I've no idea why Brad Pitt is even on this short list as his performance was bland and forgettable, owing everything that was memorable about it to the brilliant special effects make-up team and IT wizards that reverse aged him. I loved Richard Jenkins' brilliantly understated performance in The Visitor but Mickey Rourke seems to be unstoppable, with his career-best performance already honoured by many industry awards including BAFTA and the Golden Globes - it is inconceivable that he'll go home empty handed tonight.
Prediction: Mickey Rourke

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

I have a hard time giving an informed opinion on this as I've see neither Rachel Getting Married nor Frozen River so don't know how worthy of the gong Anne Hathaway or Melissa Leo are. From what I've seen, it will be a straight fight between Meryl Streep, Angelina Jolie and Kate Winslet and, like Mickey Rourke, Winslet has the momentum going into this and with four previous nominations and no wins, I have a feeling that this'll be her year, particularly as she may get votes for both The Reader and Revolutionary Road.
Prediction: Kate Winslet

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

If there were any justice then Philip Seymour Hoffman would win for his incredibly powerful performance in Doubt and, whilst I think that he brought an edge to the character that no previous actor had managed, Heath Ledger's portrayal of The Joker in The Dark Knight was memorable but inferior to Hoffman's layered and nuanced priest in Doubt. Oscar nights usually have a degree of emotion which overrides common sense and, whilst Hoffman's performance deserves the Award, Ledger will win a posthumous Oscar for being a fine actor who will sadly not get another opportunity.
Prediction: Heath Ledger.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

There are plenty of worthy candidates in this category, none of whom are unworthy of winning the Oscar. I have yet to see Vicky Cristina Barcelona but don't think the Academy will recognise Penélope Cruz anyway; Marisa Tomei put in the performance of her career opposite Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler but I think this category will be won by an actress from Doubt, probably Viola Davis for just a single scene opposite Meryl Streep. She was extremely powerful in just a short time on screen and the Academy has form for handing out awards for brief appearances: Dame Judi Dench in Shakespeare in Love for just eight minutes and Anthony Hopkins' memorable sixteen minutes of fame in The Silence of the Lambs.
Prediction: Viola Davis.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Although the film will not win Best Picture, I see Danny Boyle getting a consolation prize by getting the Best Director Award, although there is great competition in this category.
Prediction: Danny Boyle.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN

This will either go to Martin McDonagh for his jet black and expletive-laced screenplay for In Bruges or for the wonderfully written WALL·E. I'd love to see McDonagh get it and suspect he will though Dustin Lance Black may well spring a surprise for Milk.
Prediction: Martin McDonagh.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED

This is another category laden with talent but Simon Beaufoy's terrifically written script for Slumdog Millionaire is the stand-out and should, and probably will, win.
Prediction: Simon Beaufoy.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

Prediction: Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN EDITING

Prediction: Chris Dickens for Slumdog Millionaire though I wouldn't be at all surprised if Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill won it for their tight editing in Frost/Nixon which made it the gripping film it is.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION

Prediction: James J. Murakami and Gary Fettis for Changling.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

Prediction: Michael O'Connor for The Duchess.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP

Prediction: Greg Cannom for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES, ORIGINAL SCORE

Prediction: A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES, ORIGINAL SONG

Prediction: Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman for WALL·E.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND

As the first act was basically a silent film, I only see one winner for quite exceptional sound design: Ben Burtt is a master and, as well as voicing the title character, was a member of a team that showed how it should be done.

Prediction: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt for WALL·E.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING

See above
Prediction: Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood for WALL·E.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS

Prediction: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR

It should have been up for Best Picture, but Pixar will win yet another Oscar this year
Prediction: Andrew Stanton for WALL·E.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR

The winner should have been Gomorrah which, stunningly, wasn't even long-listed despite being one of the films of the year so, in its absence, Israel will win.
Prediction: Walk with Bashir.